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Dangerous Days: The Impact of Nationalism on Interstate Conflict

Gruffydd-Jones, Jamie (2017) Dangerous Days: The Impact of Nationalism on Interstate Conflict. Security Studies, 26 (4). pp. 698-728. ISSN 0963-6412. (doi:10.1080/09636412.2017.1336393) (KAR id:67026)

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Does an upsurge in nationalism make interstate conflict more likely? This article gives evidence to suggest that spikes in nationalism do have a direct impact on the likelihood of disputes between states. In it, I use national days or anniversaries as occasions that increase the salience of a national identity and its historical wars. I show that in the two months following national days, conflict is markedly higher than would be expected—almost 30 percent more likely than the rest of the year—and particularly likely for states who initiate conflict or who have revisionist intentions. I demonstrate further how nationalist sentiment can increase international tensions with a case study of national anniversaries in China and Japan. Together, this evidence suggests that the increase in nationalism around national days provides both risks and opportunities to regimes and shapes when they choose conflict over cooperation in international relations.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1080/09636412.2017.1336393
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Politics and International Relations
Depositing User: Jamie Gruffydd-Jones
Date Deposited: 15 May 2018 09:48 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Feb 2021 13:54 UTC
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Gruffydd-Jones, Jamie:
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