Violent crime and perceived deterrence: an empirical approach using the Offending, Crime & Justice Survey

This paper provides an econometric assessment of the deterrence model, with a

specific focus on violent crime in England and Wales. It finds that beliefs about

the probability of arrest are substantially lower than official arrests rates, but

when adjusting for non-reporting by victims, the perceived risk of arrest and

actual arrest rate are very similar. Further, no empirical evidence is found to the

effect that perception of the probability of arrest differ between criminals and

non-criminals. Perceptions about general perceived risk of arrest are not found

to be related to an individual's own criminal and arrest history. Instead, an individual's

beliefs about the perceived probability of arrest are largely affected by

neighbourhood conditions and victimisation. The link between perceptions and

criminal behaviour is also examined, but the empirical evidence is not in line

with the basic predictions of the economic theory of crime.