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Synchronized dynamics of Tipula paludosa metapopulation in a southwestern Scotland agroecosystem: Linking pattern to process

Bearup, Daniel, Petrovskii, S., Blackshaw, R., Hastings, A. (2013) Synchronized dynamics of Tipula paludosa metapopulation in a southwestern Scotland agroecosystem: Linking pattern to process. American Naturalist, 182 (3). pp. 393-409. ISSN 0003-0147. (doi:10.1086/671162)

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Abstract

Synchronization of population fluctuations at disjoint habitats has been observed in many studies, but its mechanisms often remain obscure. Synchronization may appear as a result of either interhabitat dispersal or regionally correlated environmental stochastic factors, the latter being known as the Moran effect. In this article, we consider the population dynamics of a common agricultural pest insect, Tipula paludosa, on a fragmented habitat by analyzing data derived from a multiannual survey of its abundance in 38 agricultural fields in southwestern Scotland. We use cross-correlation coefficients and show that there is a considerable synchronization between different populations across the whole area. The correlation strength exhibits an intermittent behavior, such that close populations can be virtually uncorrelated, but populations separated by distances up to approximately 150 km can have a cross-correlation coefficient close to one. To distinguish between the effects of stochasticity and dispersal, we then calculate a time-lagged cross-correlation coefficient and show that it possesses considerably different properties to the nonlagged one. In particular, the time-lagged correlation coefficient shows a clear directional dependence. The distribution of the time-lagged correlations with respect to the bearing between the populations has a striking similarity to the distribution of wind velocities, which we regard as evidence of long-distance wind-assisted dispersal.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1086/671162
Additional information: cited By 6
Uncontrolled keywords: metapopulation, synchronization, dispersal, Moran effect, Tipula paludosa
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science)
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH541 Ecology
Divisions: Faculties > Sciences > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science
Faculties > Sciences > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Applied Mathematics
Depositing User: Daniel Bearup
Date Deposited: 30 Nov 2017 12:11 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 19:47 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/64320 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Bearup, Daniel: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8524-7659
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