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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

Bentham, James, NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) (2016) Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants. Lancet, 387 (10027). pp. 1513-1530. ISSN 0140-6736. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8)

Abstract

Background

We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.

Findings

Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8
Divisions: Faculties > Sciences > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science
Faculties > Sciences > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Statistics
Depositing User: James Bentham
Date Deposited: 13 Oct 2017 15:46 UTC
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2020 04:17 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/63995 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Bentham, James: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-9417
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