The 2017 General Election, Brexit and the Return to Two-Party Politics: An Aggregate- Level Analysis of the Result

Heath, Oliver and Goodwin, Matthew J. (2017) The 2017 General Election, Brexit and the Return to Two-Party Politics: An Aggregate- Level Analysis of the Result. Political Quarterly, 88 (3). pp. 345-358. ISSN 0032-3179. E-ISSN 1467-923X. (doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12405) (Access to this publication is currently restricted. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

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Abstract

The outcome of the 2017 general election—a hung parliament—defied most predictions. In this article, we draw on aggregate-level data to conduct an initial exploration of the vote. What was the impact of Brexit on the 2017 general election result? What difference did the collapse of UKIP make? And what was the relative importance of factors such as turnout, education, age and ethnic diversity on support for the two main parties? First, we find that turnout was generally higher in more pro-remain areas, and places with high concentrations of young people, ethnic minorities and university graduates. Second, we find that the Conservatives made gains in the sort of places that had previously backed Brexit and previously voted for UKIP. But, third, we find that the gains the Conservatives made from the electoral decline of UKIP were offset by losses in the sort of places that had previously supported the Conservatives, particularly areas in southern England with larger numbers of graduates. The implication of these findings is that while a Brexit effect contributed to a ‘realignment on the right’, with the Conservative strategy appealing to people in places that had previously voted for UKIP, this strategy was not without an electoral cost, and appears to have hurt the party in more middle class areas.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: J Political Science
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Politics and International Relations
Depositing User: Rubrick Biegon
Date Deposited: 09 Oct 2017 10:43 UTC
Last Modified: 10 Oct 2017 09:50 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/63903 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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