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Real Estate valuation and forecasting in non-homogeneous markets: A case study in Greece during the financial crisis

Alexandridis, Antonios, Karlis, Dimitrios, Papastamos, Dimitrios (2017) Real Estate valuation and forecasting in non-homogeneous markets: A case study in Greece during the financial crisis. In: 7th International Conference of the Financial Engineering and Banking Society, 1 June 2017 - 3 June 2017, Glasgow.

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In this paper we develop an automatic valuation model for property valuation using a large database of historical prices from Greece. The Greek property market is an inefficient, non-homogeneous market, still at its infancy and governed by lack of information. As a result modelling the Greek real estate market is a very interesting and challenging problem. The available data covers a big range of properties across time and includes the Greek financial crisis period which led to tremendous changes in the dynamics of the real estate market. We formulate and compare linear and nonlinear models based on regression, hedonic equations, spatial analysis and artificial neural networks. The forecasting ability of each method is evaluated out-of-sample. Special care is given on measuring the success of the forecasts but also to identify the property characteristics that lead to large forecasting errors. Finally, by examining the strengths and the performance of each method we apply a combined forecasting rule to improve performance. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology constitutes an accurate tool for property valuation in non- homogeneous, newly developed markets.

Item Type: Conference or workshop item (Paper)
Uncontrolled keywords: Forecasting, Property valuation, Real Estate, Neural Networks
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School
Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Accounting and Finance
Depositing User: Antonis Alexandridis
Date Deposited: 15 Sep 2017 11:42 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 19:32 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Alexandridis, Antonios:
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