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A Bayesian Solution to the Conflict of Narrowness and Precision in Direct Inference

Wallmann, Christian (2017) A Bayesian Solution to the Conflict of Narrowness and Precision in Direct Inference. Journal for General Philosophy of Science, . ISSN 0925-4560. (doi:10.1007/s10838-017-9368-x) (KAR id:62818)

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Language: English


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https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10838-017-9368-x

Abstract

The conflict of narrowness and precision in direct inference occurs if a body of evidence contains estimates for frequencies in a certain reference class and less precise estimates for frequencies in a narrower reference class. To develop a solution to this conflict, I draw on ideas developed by Paul Thorn and John Pollock. First, I argue that Kyburg and Teng’s solution to the conflict of narrowness and precision leads to unreasonable direct inference probabilities. I then show that Thorn’s recent solution to the conflict leads to unreasonable direct inference probabilities. Based on my analysis of Thorn’s approach, I propose a natural distribution for a Bayesian analysis of the data directly obtained from studying members of the narrowest reference class.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1007/s10838-017-9368-x
Uncontrolled keywords: Reference class problem, Direct inference, Statistical syllogism, Imprecise probabilities, Expected frequency, Specificity, Natural distribution
Divisions: Faculties > Humanities > School of European Culture and Languages > Philosophy
Depositing User: C. Wallmann
Date Deposited: 15 Aug 2017 14:26 UTC
Last Modified: 09 Jul 2019 08:53 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/62818 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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