What determines post-compulsory academic studies? Evidence from the longitudinal survey of young people in England

We show that educational attainments at the end of the compulsory schooling stage are powerful predictors for post-compulsory educational choices in England. In particular, the single academic success indicator of achieving the Government’s gold standard in GCSE, is able to predict virtually all the observed incidences of post-compulsory studies for academic qualifications. Notwithstanding, Two Stage Least Squares estimation which exploits variations in school starting age induced by school entry rules suggests that the least-squares effect of achieving the gold standard in GCSEs on studying for academic qualifications is due to ability bias or reverse causation.