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A technique to develop simplified and linearised models of complex dynamic supply chain systems

Spiegler, Virginia L.M., Naim, Mohamed M., Towill, Denis R., Wikner, Joakim (2016) A technique to develop simplified and linearised models of complex dynamic supply chain systems. European Journal of Operational Research, 251 (3). pp. 888-903. ISSN 0377-2217. (doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.004) (KAR id:56714)

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.004

Abstract

There is a need to identify and categorise different types of nonlinearities that commonly appear in supply chain dynamics models, as well as establishing suitable methods for linearising and analysing each type of nonlinearity. In this paper simplification methods to reduce model complexity and to assist in gaining system dynamics insights are suggested. Hence, an outcome is the development of more accurate simplified linear representations of complex nonlinear supply chain models. We use the highly cited Forrester production-distribution model as a benchmark supply chain system to study nonlinear control structures and apply appropriate analytical control theory methods. We then compare performances of the linearised model with numerical solutions of the original nonlinear model and with other previous research on the same model. Findings suggest that more accurate linear approximations can be found. These simplified and linearised models enhance the understanding of the system dynamics and transient responses, especially for inventory and shipment responses. A systematic method is provided for the rigorous analysis and design of nonlinear supply chain dynamics models, especially when overly simplistic linear relationship assumptions are not possible or appropriate. This is a precursor to robust control system optimisation. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO) within the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS).

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.004
Uncontrolled keywords: Manufacturing and shipment constraints; Nonlinear control theory; System dynamics; The Forrester model
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Management Science
Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Centre for Logistics and Heuristic Organisation (CLHO)
Depositing User: Virginia Spiegler
Date Deposited: 02 Aug 2016 09:05 UTC
Last Modified: 14 Feb 2020 10:21 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/56714 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Spiegler, Virginia L.M.: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7130-3151
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