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Preference Attainment: Determinants of Bargaining Success in the Context of Climate Change Negotiations

Weiler, Florian (2012) Preference Attainment: Determinants of Bargaining Success in the Context of Climate Change Negotiations. Climate Policy, 12 (5). pp. 552-574. ISSN 1469-3062. E-ISSN 1752-7457. (doi:10.1080/14693062.2012.691225)

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The process of negotiating climate change, as any bargaining process according to realism as well as liberalism, can be viewed a power game between the parties involved. Whether states are concerned with absolute gains or care more about relative gains is still widely debated. Analyzing the negotiation outcome of Cancun empirically, I explore which variables actually determine bargaining success. Are external power sources such as economic strength key for countries to achieve their negotiation goals, or are internal power sources such as negotiation skills equally important? And to what extent does the choice of hard vs. soft bargaining strategies matter for accomplishing these goals? Moreover, I examine whether variables intrinsically tied to countries, such as vulnerability to climate change, have an effect on negotiation success. These questions are answered using a novel dataset on the current climate change negotiations for which data on success, positions, and strategies of participating parties were collected. The results indicate that external power (measured by total GDP), extremity of positions, and vulnerability to climate change impacts are the most important determinants of success.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1080/14693062.2012.691225
Uncontrolled keywords: bargaining success, climate change, climate change negotiations, preference attainment, UNFCCC, Mots clés: succès de la négociation, changement climatique, négociations sur le climat, réalisation des preferences, CCNUCC
Subjects: J Political Science > JZ International relations
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Politics and International Relations
Depositing User: F. Weiler
Date Deposited: 13 Apr 2016 10:50 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 17:12 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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