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Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis?

Gausden, Robert, Hasan, Mohammad S (2016) Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis? Applied Economics, 48 (18). pp. 1695-1709. ISSN 0003-6846. E-ISSN 1466-4283. (doi:10.1080/00036486.2015.1105926)

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https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1105926

Abstract

The objective is to investigate whether access to data on consumer confidence would have aided forecasts of the growth of the UK household expenditure over the recent period of economic crisis. A disaggregated study is performed on the basis that consideration is given not only to household spending in total but also expenditure on each of durable goods, semi-durable goods, nondurable goods and services. The empirical analysis demonstrates how modifications which are made to the harmonized indicator of the European Commission are able to enhance predictive accuracy. However, the benefit which is derived from consulting consumer survey data does not extend to an earlier interval over which the behaviour of consumer sentiment was far less volatile.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1080/00036486.2015.1105926
Uncontrolled keywords: Consumption, consumer confidence, forecasting, permanent income hypothesis, precautionary saving
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Accounting and Finance
Depositing User: Mohammad Hasan
Date Deposited: 10 Feb 2016 16:54 UTC
Last Modified: 18 Feb 2020 04:07 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/54141 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Hasan, Mohammad S: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2453-6868
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