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Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?

Panopoulou, Ekaterini, Vrontos, Spyridon (2015) Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information? Journal of Banking & Finance, 56 . pp. 103-122. ISSN 0378-4266. (doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.03.004) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.03.004

Abstract

While the majority of the predictability literature has been devoted to the predictability of traditional asset classes, the literature on the predictability of hedge fund returns is quite scanty. We focus on assessing the out-of-sample predictability of hedge fund strategies by employing an extensive list of predictors. Aiming at reducing uncertainty risk associated with a single predictor model, we first engage into combining the individual forecasts. We consider various combining methods ranging from simple averaging schemes to more sophisticated ones, such as discounting forecast errors, cluster combining and principal components combining. Our second approach combines information of the predictors and applies kitchen sink, bootstrap aggregating (bagging), lasso, ridge and elastic net specifications. Our statistical and economic evaluation findings point to the superiority of simple combination methods. We also provide evidence on the use of hedge fund return forecasts for hedge fund risk measurement and portfolio allocation. Dynamically constructing portfolios based on the combination forecasts of hedge funds returns leads to considerably improved portfolio performance.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.03.004
Uncontrolled keywords: Forecast combination; Combining information; Prediction; Hedge funds; Portfolio construction
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School
Depositing User: Ekaterini Panopoulou
Date Deposited: 01 Oct 2015 13:02 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 16:04 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/50706 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Panopoulou, Ekaterini: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5080-9965
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