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A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities

Leisen, Fabrizio, Casarin, Roberto, Molina, German, Ter Horst, Enrique (2015) A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities. Bayesian Analysis, 10 (4). pp. 791-819. ISSN 1936-0975. (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba/1434980946

Abstract

We build on the derivative pricing calibration literature, and propose a more general calibration model for implied risk neutral densities. Our model allows for the joint calibration of a set of densities at different maturities and dates through a Bayesian dynamic Beta Markov Random Field. Our approach allows for possible time dependence between densities with the same maturity, and for dependence across maturities at the same point in time. This approach to the risk neutral density calibration problem encompasses model flexibility, parameter parsimony, and, more importantly, information pooling across densities. This proposed methodology can be naturally extended to other areas where multidimensional calibration is needed.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: Faculties > Sciences > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science
Faculties > Sciences > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Statistics
Depositing User: Fabrizio Leisen
Date Deposited: 07 Jun 2015 15:39 UTC
Last Modified: 01 Aug 2019 10:38 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/48943 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Leisen, Fabrizio: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2460-6176
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