Body Mass, Physical Activity and Future Care Needs

Previous literature shows that Body Mass Index (obesity status) is a strong predictor of the

disability and functional limitations. Relying on the data from the English Longitudinal Survey of

Ageing over the period from 2002 to 2011, we find that obesity status is also a significant risk

factor in determining future informal care needs but not formal care use, even after controlling for

ADLs and IADLS and for specific existing health conditions, including diabetes, high blood pressure,

and CVD. Obese elderly are 1.7-1.8 times more likely to use informal care and privately paid care,

but not formal care, in two-year’s time. Sensitivity analysis on a restricted sample shows that this

result is not driven by prediabetes. We also find that physical activity is associated with a

significantly lower likelihood of using any mode of care in the future, with the strongest effect for

formal care use. Moreover, the effect of obesity on informal care use is larger for females, but the

protective effect of physical activity is stronger for males.