Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang-utans

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal

environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture

predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models

projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial

by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm – a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate

reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15–30% by the 2080s. Although habitat

and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but

used, with 900–17 000 km2 outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could

changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation

changes expected this century.