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Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM

Ma, Yue, Kanas, Angelos (2000) Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19 (1). pp. 135-152. ISSN 0261-5606. (doi:10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00045-5) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00045-5

Abstract

We employ two nonparametric nonlinear testing methodologies, namely a nonparametric nonlinear cointegration approach and a nonlinear Granger causality approach, to test for a nonlinear relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates for two country-pairs, namely the Netherlands-Germany and France-Germany. The results suggest that there is nonlinear cointegration among money, output and exchange rates for Netherlands-Germany, which can be interpreted as evidence of a long-run nonlinear relationship. For France-Germany, we fail to find evidence of nonlinear cointegration, but we find nonlinear Granger causality from French money to the FFr/DM exchange rate. These findings may be interpreted as evidence of a dynamic nonlinear relationship and are consistent with the German dominance hypothesis. On the basis of estimated fractional ARIMA models, we rejected the hypothesis that these nonlinearities are due to bubbles. © 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00045-5
Uncontrolled keywords: Causality, Cointegration, Exchange rates, Nonlinearity
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Accounting and Finance
Depositing User: Tracey Pemble
Date Deposited: 23 May 2014 09:19 UTC
Last Modified: 11 Jun 2019 10:40 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/41173 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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