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Modeling traffic volatility dynamics in an urban network

Kamarianakis, Yiannis, Kanas, Angelos, Prastacos, Poulicos (2006) Modeling traffic volatility dynamics in an urban network. Transportation Research Record, 1923 . pp. 18-27. ISSN 0361-1981. (doi:10.3141/1923-03) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1923-03

Abstract

This article discusses the application of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) time series models for representing the dynamics of traffic flow volatility. The methods encountered in the literature focus on the levels of traffic flows and assume that variance is constant through time. The approach adopted in this paper concentrates primarily on the autoregressive properties of traffic variability, with the aim to provide better confidence intervals for traffic flow forecasts. The model-building procedure is illustrated with 7.5-min average traffic flow data for a set of 11 loop detectors located at major arterials that direct to the center of the city of Athens, Greece. A sensitivity analysis for coefficient estimates is undertaken with respect to both time and space.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.3141/1923-03
Additional information: Unmapped bibliographic data: JA - Transp Res Rec [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Department of Economics, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, University of Crete, GR 71110, Heraklion Crete, Greece [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Department of Economics, University of Crete, GR 74100, Rethymnon, Crete, Greece [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Regional Analysis Division, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology, GR 71110, Heraklion Crete, Greece [Field not mapped to EPrints]
Uncontrolled keywords: Data reduction, Mathematical models, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Model-building procedure, Traffic flow, Traffic variability, Highway traffic control
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Accounting and Finance
Depositing User: Tracey Pemble
Date Deposited: 22 May 2014 14:54 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 12:36 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/41158 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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