Modeling Citation Behavior in Management Science Journals

Mingers, John and Burrell, Quentin L. (2006) Modeling Citation Behavior in Management Science Journals. Information Processing and Management, 42 (6). pp. 1451-1464. ISSN 0306-4573. (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not available from this repository. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL


Citation rates are becoming increasingly important in judging the research quality of journals, institutions and departments, and individual faculty. This paper looks at the pattern of citations across different management science journals and over time. A stochastic model is proposed which views the generating mechanism of citations as a gamma mixture of Poisson processes generating overall a negative binomial distribution. This is tested empirically with a large sample of papers published in 1990 from six management science journals and found to fit well. The model is extended to include obsolescence, i.e., that the citation rate for a paper varies over its cited lifetime. This leads to the additional citations distribution which shows that future citations are a linear function of past citations with a time-dependent and decreasing slope. This is also verified empirically in a way that allows different obsolescence functions to be fitted to the data. Conclusions concerning the predictability of future citations, and future research in this area are discussed.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled keywords: citations; gamma-Poisson model; negative binomial distribution; obsolescence; stochastic modeling
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA33 Management Science
Z Bibliography. Library Science. Information Resources > Z665 Library Science. Information Science
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School
Depositing User: John Mingers
Date Deposited: 08 Sep 2008 11:55
Last Modified: 28 Apr 2014 09:50
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
  • Depositors only (login required):


Downloads per month over past year