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The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Warren, R., Lowe, J.A., Arnell, N.W., Hope, C., Berry, P., Brown, S., Gambhir, A., Gosling, S.N., Nicholls, R.J., O'Hanley, J.R., and others. (2013) The AVOID programme's new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation. Climatic Change, 120 (1-2). pp. 55-70. ISSN 0165-0009. E-ISSN 1573-1480. (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:38223)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4

Abstract

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4
Additional information: Export Date: 11 February 2014Source: Scopus
Uncontrolled keywords: Climate change impact; Climate change mitigation; Climate change scenarios; Energy technology models; Physically based models; Quantitative simulation; Regional climate changes; Self-consistent approach Engineering controlled terms: Economics; Greenhouse gases; Uncertainty analysis Engineering main heading: Climate change GEOBASE Subject Index: carbon emission; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; energy efficiency; environmental economics; global perspective; greenhouse gas; mitigation; numerical model; twenty first century; uncertainty analysis
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Law School
Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Centre for Logistics and Heuristic Organisation (CLHO)
Depositing User: Jesse O'Hanley
Date Deposited: 11 Feb 2014 16:33 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 11:50 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/38223 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
O'Hanley, J.R.: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3522-8585
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