Escalation of interstate crises of conflictual dyads: Greece-Turkey and India-Pakistan

Suzuki, Akisato and Loizides, Neophytos G. (2011) Escalation of interstate crises of conflictual dyads: Greece-Turkey and India-Pakistan. Cooperation and Conflict, 46 (1). pp. 21-39. ISSN 0010-8367. (doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/0010836710396770) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

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Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010836710396770

Abstract

This article examines the causation and extent of interstate crisis escalation among two conflictual dyads, namely Greece–Turkey and India–Pakistan. It draws from the International Crisis Behaviour dataset to present a new sub-dataset of 12 interstate crises involving the two dyads in the period 1987 to 2002. While crisis behaviour in Greece–Turkey has frequently been analysed within the context of two major regional organizations (NATO and the EU), Indian–Pakistani crises have been studied within the perspective of nuclear proliferation. To examine the linkage between these features and interstate crises, the article operationalizes the security dilemma and the diversionary theory of war through a probabilistic model. Using Ragin’s (2000) comparative qualitative analysis, it demonstrates that both the security dilemma and diversionary theory explain crisis escalation, although the latter covers more cases with a smaller margin of error. Moreover, the article demonstrates that Greek–Turkish crises have generally escalated to relatively low levels of conflict (threat of war or show of force), while Indian–Pakistani crises have spiralled to higher levels of confrontation (use of force). In both dyads, nuclear weapons and regional organizations have shaped the boundaries of possible escalatory action. The EU and NATO have contributed to mitigating crisis escalation and the use of force between the Aegean neighbours, while unintentionally encouraging low intensity confrontations; meanwhile, in South Asia, nuclear weapons in combination with fragile domestic regimes have exacerbated crises, particularly in the form of state-sponsored unconventional warfare.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled keywords: crisis escalation; democratic peace; diversionary theory; nuclear weapons; regional organization; security dilemma
Subjects: J Political Science
J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Politics and International Relations > Conflict Analysis Research Centre
Depositing User: Neophytos Loizides
Date Deposited: 01 Dec 2013 22:11 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2014 11:22 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/36769 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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