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Significance of sighting rate in inferring extinction and threat

McInerny, Greg J., Roberts, David L., Davy, Anthony J., Cribb, Phillip J. (2006) Significance of sighting rate in inferring extinction and threat. Conservation Biology, 20 (2). pp. 562-567. ISSN 08888892 (ISSN). (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00377.x) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00377.x

Abstract

We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids (Paphiopedilum). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed. © 2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00377.x
Additional information: Unmapped bibliographic data: PY - 2006/// [EPrints field already has value set] AD - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation, School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 3AB, United Kingdom [Field not mapped to EPrints] JA - Conserv. Biol. [Field not mapped to EPrints]
Uncontrolled keywords: Collection data, Herbarium specimens, Paphiopedilum, Red-list criteria, Species decline, extinction, prioritization, quantitative analysis, Red List, trend analysis, article, biological model, environmental protection, methodology, Orchidaceae, physiology, population density, species difference, statistical model, statistics, Conservation of Natural Resources, Models, Biological, Models, Statistical, Orchidaceae, Population Density, Species Specificity, Orchidaceae, Paphiopedilum
Subjects: Q Science
Q Science > QH Natural history
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH75 Conservation (Biology)
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation
Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation > DICE (Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology)
Depositing User: David Roberts
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2014 14:39 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 10:10 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/33839 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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