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Inferring national and regional declines of rare orchid species with probabilistic models

Duffy, Karl J., Kingston, Naomi E., Sayers, Brendan A., Roberts, David L., Stout, Jane C. (2009) Inferring national and regional declines of rare orchid species with probabilistic models. Conservation Biology, 23 (1). pp. 184-195. ISSN 08888892 (ISSN). (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01064.) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01064.

Abstract

Fragmentation of natural habitats can increase numbers of rare species. Conservation of rare species requires experts and resources, which may be lacking for many species. In the absence of regular surveys and expert knowledge, historical sighting records can provide data on the distribution of a species. Numerous models have been developed recently to make inferences regarding the threat status of a taxon on the basis of variation in trends of sightings over time. We applied 5 such models to national and regional (county) data on 3 red-listed orchid species (Cephalanthera longifolia, Hammarbya paludosa, and Pseudorchis albida) and 1 species that has recently come to the attention of conservation authorities (Neotinea maculata) in the Republic of Ireland. In addition, we used an optimal linear estimate to calculate the time of extinction for each species overall and within each county. To account for bias in recording effort over time, we used rarefaction analysis. On the basis of sighting records, we inferred that these species are not threatened with extinction and, although there have been declines, there is no clear geographical pattern of decline in any species. Most counties where these orchid species occurred had a low number of sightings; hence, we were cautious in our interpretation of output from statistical models. We suggest the main drivers of decline in these species in Ireland are modification of habitats for increased agricultural production and lack of appropriate management. Our results show that the application of probabilistic models can be used even when sighting data are scarce, provided multiple models are used simultaneously and rarefaction is used to account for bias in recording effort among species over time. These models could be used frequently when making an initial conservation assessment of species in a region, particularly if there is a relatively constant recording rate and some knowledge of the underlying recording process. Regional-scale analyses, such as ours, complement World Conservation Union criteria for assessment of the extinct category and are useful for highlighting areas of under recording and focusing conservation efforts of rare and endangered species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01064.
Additional information: Unmapped bibliographic data: PY - 2009/// [EPrints field already has value set] AD - Department of Botany, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - National Parks and Wildlife Service, Department of Environment, Heritage, and Local Government, 7 Ely Place, Dublin 2, Ireland [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - National Botanic Gardens, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 3AB, United Kingdom [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] JA - Conserv. Biol. [Field not mapped to EPrints]
Uncontrolled keywords: Extinction risk, Habitat conservation, Ireland, Orchidaceae, Rarefaction, Rarity, Sighting rate, ecosystem modeling, extinction risk, habitat conservation, habitat fragmentation, monocotyledon, population decline, rarity, article, ecosystem, environmental protection, Ireland, methodology, Orchidaceae, physiology, population dynamics, species extinction, statistical model, Conservation of Natural Resources, Ecosystem, Extinction, Biological, Ireland, Models, Statistical, Orchidaceae, Population Dynamics, Eurasia, Europe, Ireland, Western Europe, Cephalanthera longifolia, Malaxis paludosa, Neotinea maculata, Orchidaceae, Pseudorchis albida
Subjects: Q Science
Q Science > QH Natural history
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH75 Conservation (Biology)
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation
Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation > DICE (Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology)
Depositing User: David Roberts
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2014 15:20 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 10:10 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/33827 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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