Goodness of fit of probability distributions for sightings as species approach extinction

Vogel, Richard M. and Hosking, Jonathan R. M. and Elphick, Chris S. and Roberts, David L. and Reed, J. Michael (2009) Goodness of fit of probability distributions for sightings as species approach extinction. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 71 (3). pp. 701-719. ISSN 00928240 (ISSN). (doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9377-3) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

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Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9377-3

Abstract

Estimating the probability that a species is extinct and the timing of extinctions is useful in biological fields ranging from paleoecology to conservation biology. Various statistical methods have been introduced to infer the time of extinction and extinction probability from a series of individual sightings. There is little evidence, however, as to which of these models provide adequate fit to actual sighting records. We use L-moment diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) hypothesis tests to evaluate the goodness of fit of various probabilistic models to sighting data collected for a set of North American and Hawaiian bird populations that have either gone extinct, or are suspected of having gone extinct, during the past 150 years. For our data, the uniform, truncated exponential, and generalized Pareto models performed moderately well, but the Weibull model performed poorly. Of the acceptable models, the uniform distribution performed best based on PPCC goodness of fit comparisons and sequential Bonferroni-type tests. Further analyses using field significance tests suggest that although the uniform distribution is the best of those considered, additional work remains to evaluate the truncated exponential model more fully. The methods we present here provide a framework for evaluating subsequent models. © 2008 Society for Mathematical Biology.

Item Type: Article
Additional information: Unmapped bibliographic data: PY - 2009/// [EPrints field already has value set] AD - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - IBM Research Division, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, P.O. Box 218, Yorktown Heights, NY 10598, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Conservation and Biodiversity, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Rd. U-3043, Storrs, CT 06269, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA 02138, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 3AB, United Kingdom [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Department of Biology, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] JA - Bull. Math. Biol. [Field not mapped to EPrints]
Uncontrolled keywords: Biological records, Extinct birds, Extirpation, Field significance test, L-moments, animal, article, biological model, bird, comparative study, growth, development and aging, species extinction, statistical model, Animals, Birds, Extinction, Biological, Models, Biological, Models, Statistical, Aves
Subjects: Q Science
Q Science > QH Natural history
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH75 Conservation (Biology)
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation
Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation > DICE (Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology)
Depositing User: David Roberts
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2014 15:19 UTC
Last Modified: 05 Jun 2014 08:23 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/33826 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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