Estimated dates of recent extinctions for North American and Hawaiian birds

Elphick, Chris S. and Roberts, David L. and Michael Reed, J. Michael (2010) Estimated dates of recent extinctions for North American and Hawaiian birds. Biological Conservation, 143 (3). pp. 617-624. ISSN 00063207 (ISSN). (doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.11.026) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

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Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.11.026

Abstract

Series of sighting records - the years in which a species has been recorded - can be used to infer whether species have gone extinct, and when extinctions occurred. We compiled sighting records for 52 rare bird species, subspecies, and distinct island populations from North America and Hawaii, 38 of which proved adequate for such analyses. Using a data set that combines non-controversial sight records with those for which physical evidence exists, no populations were judged likely to be extant, including those that have not been declared extinct. The 'alal� was the only species with a 95% confidence interval around the extinction date that extended beyond 2009, suggesting that this population is the least unlikely to be extinct. Although all are probably extinct, populations were ranked according to their likelihood of persistence, so that any future searches can be prioritized to minimize the risk that resources are spent on extinct species. Estimated extinction dates spanned the period from the 1840s-2000s, with evidence for a peak in the early 1900s. On average, only about 4 years passed between a species' last sighting and its estimated extinction date, and the 95% confidence intervals around extinction dates extended 9-26 years after the last sighting. Long gaps between sightings were very rare. Mean and median gap sizes between consecutive sightings within sighting records were 2.5 and 0 years, respectively. Gaps between the last and penultimate sightings were smaller than average gap sizes earlier in sighting records. Finally, a non-parametric method that can be calculated with more limited data proved a weak substitute for using more complete sighting records. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
Additional information: Unmapped bibliographic data: PY - 2010/// [EPrints field already has value set] AD - Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Conservation and Biodiversity, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Rd., U-3043, Storrs, CT 06269, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 3AB, United Kingdom [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Department of Biology, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] JA - Biol. Conserv. [Field not mapped to EPrints]
Uncontrolled keywords: Avian extinction, Conservation triage, Critically endangered, Sighting records, Species persistence, bird, data set, extinction risk, species conservation, Aves, Corvus hawaiiensis
Subjects: Q Science
Q Science > QH Natural history
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH75 Conservation (Biology)
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation
Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation > DICE (Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology)
Depositing User: David Roberts
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2014 15:03 UTC
Last Modified: 05 Jun 2014 08:21 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/33821 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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