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Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker

Solow, Andrew R., Smith, Woollcott, Burgman, Mark A., Rout, Tracy, Wintle, Brendan A., Roberts, David L. (2012) Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology, 26 (1). pp. 180-184. ISSN 08888892 (ISSN). (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01743.x) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01743.x

Abstract

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often,however,there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date,uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker(Campephilus principalis).This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03,which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944,1952,and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01743.x
Additional information: Unmapped bibliographic data: PY - 2012/// [EPrints field already has value set] AD - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Statistics Department, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122, United States [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Vic. 3010, Australia [Field not mapped to EPrints] AD - Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NR, United Kingdom [Field not mapped to EPrints] JA - Conserv. Biol. [Field not mapped to EPrints]
Uncontrolled keywords: Bayes factor, Campephilus principalis, Extinction, Poisson process, Sighting record, Bayesian analysis, bird, extinction risk, Poisson ratio, qualitative analysis, spatial distribution, species conservation, temporal period, uncertainty analysis, animal, article, bird, environmental protection, population density, species extinction, statistical model, uncertainty, Animals, Birds, Conservation of Natural Resources, Extinction, Biological, Models, Statistical, Population Density, Uncertainty, Campephilus, Campephilus principalis
Subjects: Q Science
Q Science > QH Natural history
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH75 Conservation (Biology)
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation
Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation > DICE (Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology)
Depositing User: David Roberts
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2014 14:55 UTC
Last Modified: 29 May 2019 10:10 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/33811 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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