Lahoz-Monfort, Jose J., Morgan, Byron J. T., Harris, Michael P., Daunt, Francis, Wanless, Sarah, Freeman, Stephen N. (2013) Breeding together: modelling synchrony in productivity in a seabird community. Ecology, 94 (1). pp. 3-10. ISSN 0012-9658. (doi:10.1890/12-0500.1) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:33031)
The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. | |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/12-0500.1 |
Abstract
With environmental conditions changing rapidly, there is a need to move
beyond single-species models and consider how communities respond to environmental
drivers. We present a modeling approach that allows estimation of multispecies synchrony in
productivity, or its components, and the contribution of environmental covariates as
synchronizing and desynchronizing agents.
We apply the model to long-term breeding success data for five seabird species at a North
Atlantic colony. Our Bayesian analysis reveals varying degrees of synchrony in overall
productivity, with a common signal indicating a significant decline in productivity between
1986 and 2009. Productivity in seabirds reflects conditions in the marine ecosystem so the
estimated synchronous component is a useful indicator of local marine environment health.
For the two species for which we have most data, the environmental contribution to overall
productivity synchrony is driven principally by effects operating at the chick stage rather than
during incubation. Our results emphasize the importance of studying together species that
coexist in a community. The framework, which accommodates interspecific clutch-size
variation, is readily applicable to any species assemblage in any ecosystem where long-term
productivity data are available.
Item Type: | Article |
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DOI/Identification number: | 10.1890/12-0500.1 |
Uncontrolled keywords: | Bayesian analysis; breeding success; chick survival; clutch size; hatchability; integration indicators; Isle of May, southeast Scotland; JAGS; long-term monitoring; marine birds; eastern North Atlantic seabird community; random effects. |
Subjects: |
Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science) > QA276 Mathematical statistics Q Science > QH Natural history > QH541 Ecology |
Divisions: | Divisions > Division of Computing, Engineering and Mathematical Sciences > School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science |
Depositing User: | Byron Morgan |
Date Deposited: | 18 Jan 2013 14:24 UTC |
Last Modified: | 16 Nov 2021 10:10 UTC |
Resource URI: | https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/33031 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes) |
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