A capture-recapture model for exploring multi-species synchrony in survival

1. Although recent decades have seen much development of statistical methods to estimate demo-

usually the estimation of parameters for individual species. This is despite the fact that several spe-

great need for new methods that enable a better integration of demographical data, e.g. the study of

and potentially similar biotic interactions.

synchrony in a demographical parameter at a multi-species level, adapting a framework initially

between-year variance in a demographical parameter into a ‘synchronous’ component, common to

proportion of each component accounted for by environmental covariates.

resources during the breeding season at the Isle of May, Scotland. Mark-resight information has

razorbills Alca torda marked as breeding adults. We explore the relationship between synchrony in

4. Most of the between-year variation was synchronous to the three species, and the same environ-

vival, possibly through different indirect causation paths.

synchrony and asynchrony in adult survival, as well as the role of environmental covariates in

to changes in their environment, and helps to disentangle the sources of these differences. The

about similarities ? differences in these species’ ecology, such as the potential overlap of wintering

areas. The method is readily applicable to other species, ecosystems and demographical parameters.