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Viability analysis of a threatened amphibian population: modelling the past, present and future

Griffiths, Richard A., Di Minin, Enrico (2011) Viability analysis of a threatened amphibian population: modelling the past, present and future. Ecography, 34 (1). pp. 162-169. ISSN 0906-7590. (doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06263.x) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:30112)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided.
Official URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06263.x

Abstract

Conservation actions that have maintained populations in the past may not necessarily do so in the future. Population viability analysis provides one tool for exploring the impact of management actions on large temporal scales. However, there are relatively few long-term data sets that provide the demographic and environmental data demanded by such models. Using a 37-yr data set, we used RAMAS Metapop to model the persistence of natterjack toads Epidalea (Bufo) calamita on a heathland in southern Britain. A retrospective analysis showed that the best fit between the predicted population trajectories and the real population was when the management carried out was modelled as an increase in K of 150 toads yr?1. However, even if ongoing management continues to improve K by a further 40–60 toads yr?1 over the next 50 yr, the population still has an extinction risk of at least 60% if other factors remain unchanged. Sensitivity analyses and simulated management scenarios indicated that the population was most sensitive to changes in the survival of juvenile (i.e. 1–2 yr old) toads. In addition, if the frequency and severity of pond desiccation increases, the risk of extinction was predicted to increase as a result of reduced recruitment. Low levels of extinction risk occurred irrespective of K when juvenile survival was enhanced in combination with low frequency and severity of pond desiccation. The models suggest that populations that are responding to management against a background of natural fluctuations may remain vulnerable to extinction for several decades. These extinction risks may increase if habitat management fails to offset reductions in recruitment and juvenile survival caused by environmental change.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06263.x
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Anthropology and Conservation > DICE (Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology)
Depositing User: Shelley Urwin
Date Deposited: 13 Aug 2012 12:48 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2021 10:08 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/30112 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Griffiths, Richard A..

Creator's ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5533-1013
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