Modelling age variation in survival and reporting rates for recovery models

Catchpole, Edward A. and Freeman, Stephen N. and Morgan, Byron J. T. (1995) Modelling age variation in survival and reporting rates for recovery models. In: EURING 94 Conference, Patuxent River, Md. (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

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In this paper, we focus on models for recovery data from birds ringed as young. In some cases, it is important to be able to include in these models a degree of age variation in the reporting probability. For certain models this has been found, empirically, to result in completely flat likelihood surfaces, due to parameter redundancy. These models cannot then be fitted to the data, to produce unique parameter estimates. However, empirical evidence also exists that other models with such age variation can be fitted to data by maximum likelihood. Using the approach of Catchpole and Morgan (1996b), we can now identify which models in this area are parameter-redundant, and which are not. Models which are not parameter-redundant may still perform poorly in practice, and this is investigated through examples, involving both veal and simulated data. The Akaike Information Criterion is found to select inappropriate models in a number of instances. The paper ends with guidelines for fitting models to data from birds ringed as young, when age dependence is expected in the reporting probability.

Item Type: Conference or workshop item (Other)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: Faculties > Science Technology and Medical Studies > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Statistics
Depositing User: P. Ogbuji
Date Deposited: 06 Jun 2009 16:23
Last Modified: 12 Jun 2014 08:28
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