Identifying and diagnosing population declines: a Bayesian assessment of lapwings in the UK

King, Ruth and Brooks, Stephen P. and Mazzetta, Chiara and Freeman, Stephen N. and Morgan, Byron J. T. (2008) Identifying and diagnosing population declines: a Bayesian assessment of lapwings in the UK. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 57 (5). pp. 609-632. ISSN 0035-9254. (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

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We combine data from separate ring recovery and survey studies to provide indices of estimated abundance for the UK lapwing Vanellus vanellus population. Using a descriptive state space model, we demonstrate the observed decline in population size in relation to directly interpretable parameters describing the demographic characteristics of the population. The Bayesian approach readily provides information that is directly relevant to the conservation of this important bird species. The method proposed extends previous work in this area in several ways. Restrictive normality assumptions that have traditionally been imposed are removed, in addition to the assumption of constant measurement error by using information relating to the index variability across time to account fully for this source of uncertainty within the model. We also provide model-averaged inference to help to inform management policy and uses.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled keywords: Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling; model choice; population status; random effects; ring recovery; state space models; survey data; Vanellus vanellus
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science) > QA276 Mathematical statistics
Q Science > QL Zoology
Divisions: Faculties > Science Technology and Medical Studies > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Statistics
Depositing User: Byron Morgan
Date Deposited: 17 Apr 2009 09:07
Last Modified: 29 Apr 2014 15:46
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