De Facto States and Reluctant Patrons: Patterns of Engagement in the Case of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey

This thesis examines the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey to explain how de facto and recognised states interact under conditions of contested sovereignty. De facto states are often assumed to depend on external support for their political and economic survival, yet existing patron-client models insufficiently explain a relationship in which support is extended without recognition of or commitment to independence. This thesis argues that Turkey's relationship with the KRG constitutes a form of reluctant patronage, in which Turkey enables the KRG's functional capacity while simultaneously constraining its progression toward independence, producing uneven outcomes across the different dimensions of sovereignty. This study develops reluctant patronage as an analytical framework structured around three mechanisms: conditional support, deliberate sovereignty constraints, and co-production. These mechanisms guide two different responses, active and passive, depending on the political circumstances, and in ways that cannot be adequately explained by existing models. Active response refers to direct intervention aimed at shaping the de facto state's political, economic and security behaviour in line with the patron state's interests. Passive response refers to the sustained engagement through economic, institutional, and functional cooperation without recognition or support for independence. The framework draws on Stephen Krasner's four dimensions of sovereignty, domestic, interdependence, international legal, and Westphalian sovereignty to analyse how these mechanisms operate in practice. Methodologically, this thesis adopts an interpretive approach based on interviews, policy documents, official statements, and academic literature. It traces the evolution of KRG-Turkey relations since 1991, with particular emphasis on the KRG's constitutional recognition in Iraq in 2005 and the aftermath of the 2017 independence referendum. The findings show that economic, energy, trade, and security cooperation significantly enhanced the KRG's domestic sovereignty. However, Turkey's refusal to endorse KRG's independence, its commitment to Iraq's territorial integrity, its concerns over its own Kurdish population, and its control over key strategic access points constrained the KRG's interdependence, international legal, and Westphalian sovereignty. These constraints are further reinforced by internal political division within the KRG and broader regional pressures, producing unstable and asymmetrical patterns of engagement. This thesis contributes to the literature on contested sovereignty, unrecognised statehood in international politics and de facto states' relations with external patrons by developing reluctant patronage as a framework for understanding interactions between de facto and recognised states.