The western technology market as Russia's emerging "field of confrontation": the vvolution of strategic thinking, 2013–2023

Dependence on foreign private technology has become an increasingly important consideration in national security strategy. The scale, depth, and pervasiveness of private technology in government operations challenge the ability of states to secure themselves, requiring them to consider the technology sector as an emerging category of stakeholder, with an increasingly significant—and increasingly complex—role. This study examines how Russian strategic thinking on foreign technology dependence evolved between 2013 and 2023 and how the reactions of Western technology companies following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine reinforced this strategic perspective. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of Russian national security, foreign policy, and digital strategy documents, the paper traces the growing characterization of foreign technology dependence as a national security vulnerability and the increasing emphasis placed on technological sovereignty. The findings show that Russian strategic documents progressively framed reliance on Western technology as a source of geopolitical risk, concerns that became more salient following the withdrawal or curtailment of operations by numerous Western technology companies after 2022. Although Russia identified this vulnerability well in advance, its inability to address it left it strategically exposed. These findings contribute to broader discussions on cyber strategy, technological sovereignty, and the role of private technology companies in contemporary national security.