Generalized loss of trust following political betrayal: Cross‐country evidence in the context of elections

This research investigates how perceptions of political betrayal—that is, the perceived violation of mutually known pivotal expectations by a political entity—shape political trust. We test a generalization hypothesis that the loss of trust might extend beyond the specific political entity (i.e., the one who betrayed) and generalize to others. Across three preregistered studies (one cross-sectional and two longitudinal) in Germany, the UK, and the US (N = 2136), we observe that perceptions of betrayal by one political entity is consistently associated with lower trust in that same entity, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Additionally, we find evidence for two types of generalizations: assimilative and contrastive. Perceived betrayal by one figure often decreases trust in other political entities (presumably categorized within a similar category; i.e., assimilation). Conversely, perceived betrayal sometimes increases trust in other political entities (most often political rivals, thus presumably categorized in different categories; i.e., contrast). Lastly, we observe reverse effects from trust toward betrayal, indicating that trust can function as a buffer in the political context. Additional analyses could not identify any distinct or stable partisan effects in these dynamics. We discuss implications for future research and policymaking.