Could a Cyber Attack Meaningfully Impact GDP? Using Natural Disasters to Better Understand the Economic Effects of Cyber Attacks

Fears that a major cyber event – a “cyber catastrophe” – could cause significant impairment to gross domestic product (GDP) has long been implied through discussion of potential severity. However, this article is the first to test the effects of historical cyber catastrophe on GDP. Using GDP as a common reference point, the study uses a comparison of cyber catastrophe economic losses to those from natural disasters in order to show how severe the economic consequences of a cyber catastrophe would have to become in order to achieve materiality. Building on limited prior research in the space, this article offers the first formal comparison of cyber catastrophe and natural disaster economic losses as a signal regarding potential impact, which can be used to inform cyber security strategy.