A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

Chadha, Jagjit S. and Nolan, Charles (2002) A Long View of the UK Business Cycle. National Institute Economic Review, 182 (1). pp. 72-89. ISSN 0027-9501. (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided)

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Abstract

We outline a number of 'stylised' facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle rela-tionships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > School of Economics
Depositing User: Jagjit Chadha
Date Deposited: 02 Oct 2008 21:51
Last Modified: 14 May 2014 11:21
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/10993 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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