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Cryptocurrencies and Lucky Factors: The value of technical and fundamental analysis

Wei, mingzhe, Kyriakou, Ioannis, Sermpinis, Georgios, Stasinakis, Charalampos (2023) Cryptocurrencies and Lucky Factors: The value of technical and fundamental analysis. International Journal of Finance and Economics, . ISSN 1076-9307. (doi:10.1002/ijfe.2863) (KAR id:103542)


This study explores the effectiveness of technical and fundamental analysis in predicting and trading the returns of twelve cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, Cardano, Avalanche, Binance Coin, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Litecoin, Terra and Solana. A universe of 7,846 technical rules, five log moving average-based ratios and 59 fundamental factors are used to test predictability and profitability through the Lucky Factors methodology and Superior Predictive Ability test. We observe predictability for a small set of technical and fundamental rules, while only the short-term log moving average-based ratio and Hashrate index demonstrate genuine in-sample and out-of-sample profitability. Our findings question the value of both technical and fundamental analysis of cryptocurrencies.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1002/ijfe.2863
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Divisions > Kent Business School - Division > Department of Accounting and Finance
Funders: University of Kent (
Depositing User: Mingzhe Wei
Date Deposited: 30 Oct 2023 20:19 UTC
Last Modified: 01 Nov 2023 11:29 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Wei, mingzhe.

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