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Competitive performance as a discriminator of doping status in elite athletes

Hopker, James G., Griffin, Jim E., Hinoveanu, Laurentiu C., Saugy, Jonas, Faiss, Raphael (2024) Competitive performance as a discriminator of doping status in elite athletes. Drug Testing and Analysis, 16 (5). pp. 473-481. ISSN 1942-7611. (doi:10.1002/dta.3563) (KAR id:102523)


As the aim of any doping regime is to improve sporting performance, it has been suggested that analysis of athlete competitive results might be informative in identifying those at greater risk of doping. This research study aimed to investigate the utility of a statistical performance model to discriminate between athletes who have a previous anti‐doping rule violation (ADRV) and those who do not. We analysed performances of male and female 100 and 800 m runners obtained from the World Athletics database using a Bayesian spline model. Measures of unusual improvement in performance were quantified by comparing the yearly change in athlete's performance (delta excess performance) to quantiles of performance in their age‐matched peers from the database population. The discriminative ability of these measures was investigated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) with the 55%, 75% and 90% quantiles of the population performance. The highest AUC values across age were identified for the model with a 75% quantile (AUC = 0.78–0.80). The results of this study demonstrate that delta excess performance was able to discriminate between athletes with and without ADRVs and therefore could be used to assist in the risk stratification of athletes for anti‐doping purposes.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1002/dta.3563
Uncontrolled keywords: data analytics, modelling, target testing, Bayesian, biological passport, risk stratification, sports
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation. Leisure > Sports sciences
Q Science
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Natural Sciences > Sport and Exercise Sciences
SWORD Depositor: JISC Publications Router
Depositing User: JISC Publications Router
Date Deposited: 22 Aug 2023 08:30 UTC
Last Modified: 10 May 2024 14:29 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

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