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The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Global Financial Markets

Izzeldin, Marwan, Muradoğlu, Gülnur, Pappas, Vasileios, Petropoulou, Athina, Sivaprasad, Sheeja (2023) The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Global Financial Markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 87 . Article Number 102598. ISSN 1057-5219. (doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102598) (KAR id:100023)


On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Applying a Markov-switching HAR model on volatility proxies, estimates are made of synchronization, duration and intensity measures for each event. In broad terms, stock markets and commodities respond most rapidly to the Russian invasion; and post-invasion crisis intensity is noticeably smaller compared to both the Covid-19 and the GFC. Wheat and nickel are the most affected commodities due to the prominent exporter status of the two countries.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102598
Uncontrolled keywords: Ukraine war, financial markets, HAR, Markov switching, commodities
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Divisions > Kent Business School - Division > Department of Accounting and Finance
Funders: University of Kent (
Depositing User: Vasileios Pappas
Date Deposited: 14 Feb 2023 14:21 UTC
Last Modified: 27 Oct 2023 13:16 UTC
Resource URI: (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

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