Influence of population mobility on electricity consumption in seven U.S. cities during the COVID-19 pandemic

Highlights

• We show that population mobility plays a key role in influencing electricity demand.
• Impacts of COVID-19 on electricity usage were mostly short-lived spanning several weeks.
• In only some cases did COVID-19 cause an appreciable reduction in electricity usage.
• In some places, electricity usage actually increased above that expected from long-term trends.

Abstract

We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption in seven U.S. cities. A high-level analysis reveals that reductions in electricity consumption were mostly short-term, mainly when lockdowns were first introduced. Bayesian structural time series modeling was used to decompose electricity consumption into multiple tailored components to better understand the pandemic's impact. We find that models incorporating population mobility achieved high accuracy rates using pre-pandemic data and even better rates using post-pandemic data. Electricity usage dropped during the first six weeks of the pandemic in all but one of the cities studied.