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Financial engineering in pricing agricultural derivatives based on demand and volatility

Assa, H. (2016) Financial engineering in pricing agricultural derivatives based on demand and volatility. Agricultural Finance Review, 76 (1). pp. 42-53. ISSN 0002-1466. (doi:10.1108/AFR-11-2015-0053) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:87570)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided. (Contact us about this Publication)
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/AFR-11-2015-0053

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the author proposes a financial engineering framework to model commodity prices based on market demand processes and demand functions. This framework explains the relation between demand, volatility and the leverage effect of commodities. It is also shown how the proposed framework can be used to price derivatives on commodity prices. Second, the author estimates the model parameters for agricultural commodities and discuss the implications of the results on derivative prices. In particular, the author see how leverage effect (or inverse leverage effect) is related to market demand. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a power demand function along with the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross mean-reverting process to find the price process of commodities. Then by using the Ito theorem the constant elastic volatility (CEV) model is derived for the market prices. The partial differential equation that the dynamics of derivative prices satisfy is found and, by the Feynman-Kac theorem, the market derivative prices are provided within a Monte-Carlo simulation framework. Finally, by using a maximum likelihood estimator, the parameters of the CEV model for the agricultural commodity prices are found. Findings – The results of this paper show that derivative prices on commodities are heavily affected by the elasticity of volatility and, consequently, by market demand elasticity. The empirical results show that different groups of agricultural commodities have different values of demand and volatility elasticity. Practical implications – The results of this paper can be used by practitioners to price derivatives on commodity prices and by insurance companies to better price insurance contracts. As in many countries agricultural insurances are subsidised by the government, the results of this paper are useful for setting more efficient policies. Originality/value – Approaches that use the methodology of financial engineering to model agricultural prices and compute the derivative prices are rather new within the literature and still need to be developed for further applications. © 2016, © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1108/AFR-11-2015-0053
Uncontrolled keywords: CIR Model; CEV Model; Demand Elasticity;
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Divisions: Divisions > Kent Business School - Division > Department of Accounting and Finance
Depositing User: Tracey Pemble
Date Deposited: 28 Apr 2021 13:23 UTC
Last Modified: 06 Oct 2021 14:34 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/87570 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
Assa, H.: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4429-8684
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