Argyropoulos, Christos, Panopoulou, Ekaterini (2018) Measuring the Market Risk of Freight Rates: A Forecast Combination Approach. Journal of Forecasting, 37 (2). pp. 201-224. ISSN 0277-6693. E-ISSN 1099-131X. (doi:10.1002/for.2485) (KAR id:62099)
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Official URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.2485 |
Abstract
This paper addresses the issue of freight rate risk measurement via Value at Risk (VaR) and forecast combination methodologies while focusing on detailed performance evaluation. We contribute to the literature in three ways: First, we re-evaluate the performance of popular VaR estimation methods on freight rates amid the adverse economic consequences of the recent financial and sovereign debt crisis. Second, we provide a detailed and extensive backtesting and evaluation methodology. Last, we propose a forecast combination approach for estimating VaR. Our findings suggest that our combination methods produce more accurate estimates for all the sectors under scrutiny, while in some cases they may be viewed as conservative since they tend to overestimate nominal VaR.
Item Type: | Article |
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DOI/Identification number: | 10.1002/for.2485 |
Uncontrolled keywords: | Backtesting; Combination Forecasts; Volatility Forecasts; Freight Rates; Performance Evaluation; Value-at-Risk; |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences |
Divisions: | Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School |
Depositing User: | Ekaterini Panopoulou |
Date Deposited: | 19 Jun 2017 08:30 UTC |
Last Modified: | 01 Aug 2019 23:00 UTC |
Resource URI: | https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/62099 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes) |
Panopoulou, Ekaterini: | ![]() |
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