THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF HUNGARIAN AGRCULTURE: PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS

Gorton, Matthew and Davidova, Sophia M. and Banse, Martin and Bailey, Alastair (2006) THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF HUNGARIAN AGRCULTURE: PAST PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS. Post Communist Economies, 18 (1). pp. 69-84. ISSN 1463-1377. (Access to this publication is restricted)

MS Word
Restricted to Repository staff only
Contact us about this Publication Download (189kB)
[img]
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14631370500505289

Abstract

The international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by estimating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios for the pre-accession period using data for the years 2000 to 2002. The estimations indicate that Hungary was less internationally competitive in arable production, compared to the mid-1990s, due to the appreciation of the Hungarian forint, static domestic demand and improved harvests in neighbouring countries. While dairy production remained uncompetitive, pork and poultry production by corporate farms became internationally competitive due to lower feed costs and better access to EU markets. The future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed for the years 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, based on the most recent version of the GTAP database, which was applied to quantify the implications of the 2004 EU accession. The analysis indicates that accession will negatively impact on the international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture by increasing land and labour prices. To maintain competitiveness in the arable sector, Hungary will need to achieve dynamic improvements in productivity to offset the effect of higher factor costs. The dairy sector, under all scenarios is likely to remain uncompetitive.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Divisions: Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Agri-Environment Economics
Depositing User: Sophia Davidova
Date Deposited: 16 Sep 2008 17:58
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2014 14:31
Resource URI: http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/8971 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
  • Depositors only (login required):

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year