Fraser, I. and Moosa, I. (2002) Demand Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Trend and Seasonality: The Case of Meat Demand in the United Kingdom. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84 (1). 83 - 89. ISSN 0002-9092.
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If budget shares have stochastic trend or seasonality or both, then demand equations based on the assumption of deterministic trend and deterministic seasonality will be mis-specified. We test this proposition by estimating a Linearized Almost Ideal (LAI) demand system for meat demand in the United Kingdom using Harvey's structural time series methodology. We demonstrate that the model specification allowing for stochastic trend and deterministic seasonality performs best in terms of diagnostic tests and goodness of fit measures. It is also shown that the model with stochastic trend is better at out-of-sample forecasting.
|Uncontrolled keywords:||demand estimation; forecasting performance; stochastic seasonality; stochastic trend|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory|
|Divisions:||Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Agri-Environment Economics|
|Depositing User:||Iain Fraser|
|Date Deposited:||12 Sep 2008 18:01|
|Last Modified:||14 Jan 2010 14:21|
|Resource URI:||http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/5543 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)|
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