The Impact of Multifactorial Genetic Disorders on Critical Illness Insurance: A Simulation Study Based on UK Biobank

Macdonald, A.S. and Pritchard, D.J. and Tapadar, Pradip (2006) The Impact of Multifactorial Genetic Disorders on Critical Illness Insurance: A Simulation Study Based on UK Biobank. ASTIN Bulletin, 36 (2). pp. 311-346. ISSN 0515-0361 . (The full text of this publication is not available from this repository)

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Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/AST.36.2.2017924

Abstract

The UK Biobank project is a proposed large-scale investigation of the combined effects of genotype and environmental exposures on the risk of common diseases. It is intended to recruit 500,000 subjects aged 40-69, to obtain medical histories and blood samples at outset, and to follow them up for at least 10 years. This will have a major impact on our knowledge of multifactorial genetic disorders, rather than the rare but severe single-gene disorders that have been studied to date.What use may insurance companies make of this knowledge, particularly if genetic tests can identify persons at different risk? We describe here a simulation study of the UK Biobank project. We specify a simple hypothetical model of genetic and environmental influences on the risk of heart attack. A single simulation of UK Biobank consists of 500,000 life histories over 10 years; we suppose that case-control studies are carried out to estimate age-specific odds ratios, and that an actuary uses these odds ratios to parameterise a model of critical illness insurance. From a large number of such simulations we obtain sampling distributions of premium rates in different strata defined by genotype and environmental exposure. We conclude that the ability of such a study reliably to discriminate between different underwriting classes is limited, and depends on large numbers of cases being analysed.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science)
Divisions: Faculties > Science Technology and Medical Studies > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Actuarial Science
Depositing User: Pradip Tapadar
Date Deposited: 01 Sep 2008 13:59
Last Modified: 14 Jan 2010 14:17
Resource URI: http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/4753 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)
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