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Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis

Kerr, Norbert L., Tindale, Scott (2011) Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 27 (1). pp. 14-40. ISSN 0169-2070. (doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.001) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:41660)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided.
Official URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.001

Abstract

The potential of group (vs. individual) forecasting is analyzed from the perspective of the social psychology of groups. The social decision scheme theory (SDST) is summarized, and several simulations are presented to demonstrate the dependence of group aggregation accuracy upon factors such as group size, the accuracy and distribution of individual forecasts, and shared representations of the forecasting problem. Many advantages and disadvantages of group aggregation are identified and related to four generic methods of group aggregation (statistical aggregation, prediction markets, the Delphi method, and face-to-face discussion). A number of aspects of forecasting problems are identified which should govern whether or not group forecasting can be relied upon, and if so, what aggregation method should be used.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.001
Uncontrolled keywords: Delphi; Prediction markets; Aggregation; Face-to-face groups; Social decision schemes
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions: Divisions > Division of Human and Social Sciences > School of Psychology
Depositing User: M.L. Barnoux
Date Deposited: 01 Jul 2014 15:19 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2021 10:16 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/41660 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Kerr, Norbert L..

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