Mingers, J. and Burrell, Q.L. (2006) Modeling Citation Behavior in Management Science Journals. Information Processing and Management, 42 (6). pp. 1451-1464. ISSN 0306-4573.
|The full text of this publication is not available from this repository. (Contact us about this Publication)|
Citation rates are becoming increasingly important in judging the research quality of journals, institutions and departments, and individual faculty. This paper looks at the pattern of citations across different management science journals and over time. A stochastic model is proposed which views the generating mechanism of citations as a gamma mixture of Poisson processes generating overall a negative binomial distribution. This is tested empirically with a large sample of papers published in 1990 from six management science journals and found to fit well. The model is extended to include obsolescence, i.e., that the citation rate for a paper varies over its cited lifetime. This leads to the additional citations distribution which shows that future citations are a linear function of past citations with a time-dependent and decreasing slope. This is also verified empirically in a way that allows different obsolescence functions to be fitted to the data. Conclusions concerning the predictability of future citations, and future research in this area are discussed.
|Uncontrolled keywords:||citations; gamma-Poisson model; negative binomial distribution; obsolescence; stochastic modeling|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA33 Management Science
Z Bibliography. Library Science. Information Resources > Z665 Library Science. Information Science
|Divisions:||Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School|
|Depositing User:||John Mingers|
|Date Deposited:||08 Sep 2008 11:55|
|Last Modified:||21 May 2011 23:56|
|Resource URI:||http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/3927 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)|
- Depositors only (login required):