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Forecasting Growth and Inflation in an enlarged Euro Area: Some Policy Implications

Flavin, Thomas J., Panopoulou, Ekaterini, Pantelidis, Theologos (2009) Forecasting Growth and Inflation in an enlarged Euro Area: Some Policy Implications. Journal of Forecasting, 28 (5). pp. 405-425. ISSN 0277-6693. (doi:10.1002/for.1117) (The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided) (KAR id:34299)

The full text of this publication is not currently available from this repository. You may be able to access a copy if URLs are provided.
Official URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1117

Abstract

We compare models for forecasting growth and infl ation in the enlarged euro

area. Forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single-equation

models. The analysis is undertaken for both individual countries and EU aggregate

variables. Aggregate forecasts are constructed by both employing aggregate

variables and by aggregating country-specifi c forecasts. Using fi nancial

variables for country-specifi c forecasts tends to add little to the predictive

ability of a simple AR model. However, they do help to predict EU aggregates.

Furthermore, forecasts from pooling individual country models usually outperform

those of the aggregate itself, particularly for the EU25 grouping. This is

particularly interesting from the perspective of the European Central Bank, who

require forecasts of economic activity and infl ation to formulate appropriate

economic policy across the enlarged group.

Item Type: Article
DOI/Identification number: 10.1002/for.1117
Uncontrolled keywords: forecasting; financial variables; growth; inflation; aggregation
Subjects: H Social Sciences
H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions: Divisions > Kent Business School - Division > Kent Business School (do not use)
Depositing User: Catherine Norman
Date Deposited: 17 Jun 2013 14:14 UTC
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2021 10:11 UTC
Resource URI: https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/34299 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)

University of Kent Author Information

Panopoulou, Ekaterini.

Creator's ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5080-9965
CReDIT Contributor Roles:

Pantelidis, Theologos.

Creator's ORCID:
CReDIT Contributor Roles:
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