Besbeas, P. and Morgan, B.J.T. (2012) A threshold model for heron productivity. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 17 (1). pp. 128-141. ISSN 1085-7117.
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We demonstrate the potential of conditionally Gaussian state-space models in integrated population modeling, when certain model parameters may be functions of previous observations. The approach is applied to a heron census, and the data are best described by a model with three population-size thresholds which determine the population productivity. The model provides an explanation of how the population rebounds rapidly after major falls in size, which are characteristic of the data. By contrast, a simple logarithmic regression of productivity on population size was not significant. The results are of ecological interest, and suggest hypotheses for further investigation.
|Uncontrolled keywords:||Conditionally Gaussian, Density dependence, Integrated population modeling, Kalman filter, Non-linear models, P-splines, State-space model|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QA Mathematics (inc Computing science) > QA276 Mathematical statistics|
|Divisions:||Faculties > Science Technology and Medical Studies > School of Mathematics Statistics and Actuarial Science > Statistics|
|Depositing User:||Byron Morgan|
|Date Deposited:||04 Oct 2012 16:09|
|Last Modified:||23 Jan 2013 11:48|
|Resource URI:||http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/31264 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)|
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