Souza Monteiro, Diogo M and Carrasco, L. and Moffitt, L.J. and Cook, A. (2012) Robust Surveillance of Animal Diseases: An Application to the Detection of Bluetongue Disease. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 105 (1 - 2). pp. 17-24. ISSN 0167-5877.
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Control of endemic, exotic, and emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection and timely management. This paper proposes a novel approach to evaluate alternative surveillance programs based on info-gap theory. A general modeling framework is developed explicitly accounting for severe uncertainty about the incursion, detection, spread, and control of exotic and emergent diseases. The model is illustrated by an evaluation of bluetongue disease surveillance strategies. Key results indicate that, when available, vaccination of the entire population is the most robust strategy. If vaccines are not available then active reporting of suspect clinical signs by farmers is a very robust surveillance policy.
|Uncontrolled keywords:||Surveillance Exotic animal disease Knightian uncertainty Info-gap theory|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences
H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
|Divisions:||Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School
Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Marketing
|Depositing User:||Cathy Norman|
|Date Deposited:||26 Apr 2012 10:01|
|Last Modified:||02 May 2012 08:58|
|Resource URI:||http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/29357 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes)|
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