Stanescu, S. and Alexander, C. and Lazar, E. (2011) Analytic Approximations to GARCH Aggregated Returns Distributions With Applications To VaR and ETL. In: Forecasting Financial Markets 18th Conference, 25th, 26th, 27th May 2011, Marseille, France. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
It is widely accepted that some of the most accurate predictions of aggregated asset returns are based on an appropriately specified GARCH process. As the forecast horizon is greater than the frequency of the GARCH model, such predictions either require time-consuming simulations or they can be approximated using a recent development in the GARCH literature, viz. analytic conditionalmoment formulae for GARCH aggregated returns. We demonstrate that this methodology yields robust and rapid calculations of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) generated by a GARCH process. Our extensive empiri- cal study applies Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher expansions and Johnson SU distributions, combined with normal and Student t, symmetric and asymmetric (GJR) GARCH processes to returns data on different financial assets; it validates the accuracy of the analytic approximations to GARCH aggre- gated returns and derives GARCH VaR estimates that are shown to be highly accurate over multiple horizons and significance levels.
| Item Type: | Conference or workshop item (Other) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) |
| Divisions: | Faculties > Social Sciences > Kent Business School > Accounting and Finance |
| Depositing User: | Cathy Norman |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Feb 2012 15:57 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Feb 2012 11:23 |
| Resource URI: | http://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/eprint/28685 (The current URI for this page, for reference purposes) |
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